Deseret News predicts the scenarios for 6A, 5A boys soccer playoffs - Jahanagahi
Deseret News predicts the scenarios for 6A, 5A boys soccer playoffs

Deseret News predicts the scenarios for 6A, 5A boys soccer playoffs

Editor’s Note: The Deseret News’ McCade Pearson, a graduate of Riverton High, has a passion for all sports, including high school sports. He’s also passionate about sports analytics and is fine-tuning formulas and models for his own power ranking and state tournament predictive system. Here’s his take on the upcoming 6A, 5A boys soccer playoffs.


On Wednesday morning the UHSAA released its RPI rankings for 6A and 5A boys soccer and the next round of brackets. It’s an exciting day that is the culmination of months of hard work as teams learn the path they have to chase for a state championship. The RPI rankings utilize win-loss record and strength of schedule, but my analytical nature has always been curious about a better, more efficient formula.

Throughout my life, two things have always been tied together — my love for sports and my love for numbers. The past decade has provided me opportunities to work in athletics as well as receive a mathematics-statistics degree.

When I looked over the empty brackets before the final RPI release, my mind wandered and I started thinking about all the exciting things that could occur during the next few weeks. I quickly built some models to try and predict what might unfold in the 6A and 5A boys soccer state tournaments.

The predictive model I designed rewards teams for results over the past two seasons, with extra weight added to the current season for obvious reasons. It has aspects that try to make it more predictive of the future than analytical to the past. Trying to predict the future is always a work in progress in sports.

There is always another number to crunch and another variable to factor in and try to quantify. I openly admit these predictions are far from perfect, and I will likely spend significant time in the coming months refining and redefining to try and get final results closer to reality for numerous sports.

However, that is what makes sports great. No matter how many predictions are put out there, the future is just one reality. Below is a summary of 100,000 simulations for each 6A and 5A soccer tournament. And yet when the players actually take the field during the coming weeks, only one version of each match will be played, only one team will come out with a victory, and they will do so just one time as one champion is crowned. We just have no idea which of the infinite simulations that will be and that is the magic of sports.

The 5A tournament kicks off Thursday with nine play-in games, while 6A follows up with eight first-round games on Friday.


6A model predictions and takeaways

No. 1 seed Weber entered as the team to beat after it followed up a perfect 19-0 season with a strong 13-2 campaign in which it beat every team on its schedule at least once. The model gives the Warriors a 53.7% chance to grab the title in back-to-back years. If the coin flips on the other side, the tournament is wide open as seven teams have between a 3.5% and 7.5% chance to win the tournament. Any one of those teams could catch fire between now and May 25. One team to watch early is Corner Canyon. It is going to have a much tougher matchup in the second round than a normal No. 2 seed would expect, whether it is Herriman or Westlake, but if the Chargers can survive that home game, they have a great shot to make it to the titlegame.

Note: The ranking column is the power ranking formula I’ve created. The other columns are probability of reaching those rounds of the playoffs.

Predicting 6A state tournament

teams Rank RPI R16 QF SF Final Champ
Weber 1980.5 one 100% 94% 80% 65% 54%
C.Canyon 1735.0 two 100% 59% 46% 24% 8%
Bingham 1722.5 3 100% 76% 38% twenty-one% 6%
Davis 1746.5 5 100% 69% 40% eleven% 6%
Syracuse 1725.3 4 100% 76% 39% eleven% 5%
Sky Ridge 1762.5 22 77% 42% 26% 16% 5%
farmington 1701.6 6 100% 52% 27% 14% 4%
herriman 1736.7 18 59% 28% 22% eleven% 4%
Mtn. Ridge 1669.6 8 100% 55% 10% 4% two%
Pl Grove 1700.4 9 80% 41% 8% 4% two%
Fremont 1666.9 12 69% 24% 12% 3% one%
Westlake 1647.6 fifteen 41% 14% 9% 4% one%
lone peak 1570.5 10 85% 53% fifteen% 5% one%
Hunter 1581.3 13 82% 23% 7% one% 0%
Copper Hills 1575.7 14 63% 17% 5% two% 0%
am.fork 1561.6 16 86% 6% two% one% 0%
West 1458.7 7 100% 44% 8% two% 0%
Layton 1551.0 twenty-one 31% 7% two% 0% 0%
Riverton 1531.5 eleven 23% 6% two% one% 0%
grange 1509.4 19 37% 8% two% one% 0%
Clearfield 1480.1 24 twenty% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Kearns 1343.0 twenty 18% two% 0% 0% 0%
Roy 1274.2 17 14% 0% 0% 0% 0%
West Jordan 1300.8 23 fifteen% 4% 0% 0% 0%

5A model predictions and takeaways

Wasatch is a strong title favorite despite being the No. 3 seed. He it has a strong win over top-seeded Provo and championship experience after winning the title last year. Meanwhile other top seeds like Provo, Alta and Skyline have great chances to continue their successful seasons all the way to Rio Tinto Stadium. Maple Mountain could be a sneaky Cinderella team, as the Golden Eagles grabbed the No. 24 seed but have had an incredibly tough schedule and picked up a few impressive wins along the way. Region 5 beat up on each other all season as Northridge, Bonneville and Viewmont split the region title at just 6-4 and it will be interesting to see if any of these teams can play their best soccer at the perfect time.

Predicting 5A state tournament

teams Rank RPI R32 R16 QF SF Final Champ
Wasatch 1840.7 3 100% 100% 92% 64% 52% 41%
skyline 1722.0 6 100% 100% 80% 30% twenty% 14%
Provo 1656.6 one 100% 100% 72% Four. Five% 28% 10%
high 1640.4 two 100% 100% 84% 52% 16% 9%
Murray 1619.2 4 100% 100% 73% Four. Five% 23% 8%
Maple Mtn. 1625.3 24 95% 49% 3. 4% 17% 10% 3%
Brighton 1600.9 10 100% 65% 37% 19% 5% two%
Stansbury 1591.2 9 100% 51% 33% fifteen% 8% two%
northridge 1571.5 12 100% 66% 36% 17% 8% two%
lehi 1517.7 5 100% 100% 49% twenty% 8% two%
Olympus 1529.3 7 100% 100% 46% 19% 4% one%
Salem 1510.4 13 100% 73% 23% eleven% 4% one%
bountiful 1551.6 32 74% 42% 14% 7% 3% one%
Jordan 1537.6 16 76% 42% 13% 6% 3% one%
sp.fork 1549.3 23 84% 33% 16% 7% one% one%
Tympanogos 1460.6 8 100% 100% 33% 10% 3% one%
W.Cross 1513.0 twenty-one 80% 31% 14% 6% two% one%
hillcrest 1527.2 eleven 100% 71% 16% 3% one% one%
Viewmont 1520.2 19 74% 51% 6% two% one% 0%
Park City 1392.4 fifteen 100% 63% eleven% 3% 0% 0%
Timpview 1432.6 27 80% 27% 4% one% 0% 0%
Bonneville 1359.6 18 83% 35% 5% one% 0% 0%
box-elder 1378.7 twenty 59% 17% 3% one% 0% 0%
East 1349.8 17 27% 8% one% 0% 0% 0%
Mtn. View 1367.6 33 24% 8% one% 0% 0% 0%
C Valley 1342.8 29 41% 10% two% 0% 0% 0%
pray 1344.8 14 100% 36% two% 0% 0% 0%
Highland 1367.9 30 26% 13% one% 0% 0% 0%
uintah 1281.1 26 16% two% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tooele 1132.5 25 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Springville 1296.8 28 twenty% 3% one% 0% 0% 0%
Payson 1118.1 31 18% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ctwood 1169.1 22 twenty-one% two% 0% 0% 0% 0%

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